On the afternoon of January 26, in Hanoi, the National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting organized a "Press information workshop to forecast hydrometeorological trends in 2024 and deploy a plan to coordinate information between agencies." hydrometeorology and press agencies."
In his opening speech, Deputy Director General of the General Department of Hydrometeorology Hoang Duc Cuong said that 2023 will be the hottest year in the past 174 years; In the world and the region, many major natural disasters have occurred, with a wide scope of impact, exceeding historical levels, causing very serious damage to people and property.
In Vietnam, although there are few storms and not much rain, there is still a record 24-hour period of rain causing flooding in Thua Thien Hue, Da Nang and Quang Nam. Notably, in 2023 there will be 20 heat waves, especially in Tuong Duong (Nghe An) where the highest temperature value of 44.2 degrees was observed on May 7, 2023. This is the highest daily temperature value ever observed in the country.
As for the cold air, the hot season comes early
Commenting on natural disaster trends in 2024, Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam said that according to forecasts, the El Nino phenomenon will appear from mid-2023 and will continue until April 2024 with a probability of over 90%. After that, El Nino weakens and has about a 60% chance of switching to a neutral phase in the period from May-July 2024 and about a 50-60% chance of switching to La Nina by the end of 2024.
According to Mr. Lam, if the above developments occur, it should be noted that in 2024, storm activity and tropical depression will be more concentrated in the second half of the storm season. There may be more storms/tropical storms forming in the East Sea.
"The heat wave phenomenon in the Southern region, the Northwest region of the North and the Central region is likely to come early and appear more frequently than the average," Mr. Lam emphasized.
Intense cold air causes severe cold, damaging cold and the possibility of ice and snow. Photo of frost on Mau Son peak during the cold weather on January 25
Regarding cold air and severe cold, harmful cold, Mr. Lam predicted that, after this strong cold air at the end of January, the cold air is forecast to be weaker than the average, so the possibility of severe cold and harmful cold will occur. in February-March 2024 is lower than the State average for the same period.
"However, it is necessary to be wary of strong cold air waves, especially in February 2024, which can cause severe, widespread cold and the risk of snow and ice in the northern highlands. Ministry. In addition, the phenomenon of light rain and drizzle in the Northern region in the Winter-Spring season of 2023-2024 is likely to appear more often than average," Mr. Lam noted.
In addition, the meteorological agency also warned of the risk of water shortage in the first half of 2024 in the Northern, Central, Central Highlands and Southern regions. At the same time, salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta in the dry season of 2023-2024 is higher than average.